Now-casting the Euro Area GDP
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (Federal Reserve Board), Thiago R. T. Ferreira (Federal Reserve Board), Domenico Giannone (Amazon.com), and Michele Modugno (Federal Reserve Board)
Here we provide weekly now-cast updates for the euro area GDP.
These exhibits are direct replications from Figure 1 of the paper
Back to the present: learning about the euro area through a now-casting model"*
forthcoming at the International Journal of Forecasting
This is work in progress, so comments and suggestions are more than welcome!
Last update: November 24, 2023.
2023:Q3 (released)
October 31, 2023: 2023:Q3 GDP first release (flash)
GDP decreased 0.1% (quarter-on-quarter, flash), close to the final now-cast estimate of -0.2% (Oct 27, 2023).
2023:Q4
2024:Q1
Memo:
Jul 29, 2022: Coefficients now re-estimated every week.
Sep 10, 2021: New table visualization.
Aug 20, 2021: Introduced tables with the now-cast evolution.
Jul 30, 2021: Changed the now-cast presentation from quarter-on-quarter (annual rate) to quarter-on-quarter (percent).
May 28, 2021: Coefficients fixed at pre-pandemic levels (Feb/28, 2020).
These images and data can be used freely with attribution to the authors, the paper, and the website.
Please cite as:
Cascaldi-Garcia, D., Ferreira, T. R., Giannone, D., & Modugno, M. (2023). Back to the Present: Learning about the Euro Area through a Now-casting Model. International Journal of Forecasting.
* Disclaimer: Giannone's contribution to the paper was completed prior to the author joining Amazon. This publication and its contents are not related to Amazon and do not reflect the position of the company and its subsidiaries. The views expressed in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the view of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with the Federal Reserve System.
We thank Caitlin Dutta, Chazz Edington, Eli Nir, Tyler Powell, and Nicolas Savignon for excellent research assistance.